|EAA - Ekonomisk kalkyl för jordbrukssektorn|
JO 45 SM 0303
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The total value of agricultural output is expected to be the same in 2003 as in 2002.
The total harvest of cereals was somewhat smaller than in 2002 but on the same level as the average of the last five years. The yield per hectare decreased, especially for winter cereals. The largest decrease was recorded for winter wheat (seeds germinated poorer as a result of dry weather during the sowing period). The diminishing yields were compensated for by an increase of almost 3 % of the area under cultivation. Producer prices for cereals were on average almost the same as last year.
The harvest of oilseeds decreased - mostly as a result of a smaller area but also as a result of somewhat lower yields. Prices have decreased somewhat according to preliminary data.
The potatoe harvest is forecasted to be smaller than last year, as the total area has - preliminary - decreased by 4 %. Prices during the first autumn months show a strong increase.
Producer prices for pigs and poultry are expected to be lower than last year but for other animals and for milk and eggs they are expected to be the same as in 2002 or increase somewhat.
Slaughterings of pigs are expected to have increased from 2002 to 2003 but slaughterings of other animals have decreased somewhat. The output volume for animals is forecasted to be higher than in 2002 partly because of the assumption of an unchanged number of capital animals 2003 after a decrease 2002.
The quantity of milk delivered to dairies decreased in 2003 and so did the deliveries of eggs to wholesalers.
Producer prices in agriculture as a whole have increased somewhat. Prices of the means of agricultural production are foreseen to rise a little stronger than producer prices which is one reason for a decrease in agricultural income. A stronger reason is, however, the forecasted decrease in other production subsidies. The subsidies according to the older environmental program have expired and the support for perennial ley farming is not replaced in the new program.
Factor income is expected to have decreased by 5 %.
In December Eurostat will publish the first estimates of agricultural income in the member states in 2003. The development is usually measured by indicator A, i.e. the change of real agricultural factor income per annual work unit. On the assumption that labour input continues to fall (-4 %) and that the rise in the implicit price index of GDP is approximately 2 %, indicator A will show a decrease by some 3 % for Sweden. However, the uncertain factors must be stressed.